Cargo rates “soared again” in October, despite no signs of a surge in peak season demand for capacity, according to the latest global market data from industry analysts CLIVE Data Services.
The analyst’s data looks at air cargo market performance compared to both pre-Covid 2019 levels and 2020. Data for September shows chargeable weight of three per cent v 2019 and 14 per cent v last year.
CLIVE’s ‘dynamic loadfactor indicator’– which measures the volume and weight perspectives of cargo flown and capacity available to produce a true indicator of airline performance – remained lower than had been expected at 68 per cent.
“With load factors up two per cent versus September, you can see the build up to the peak season but, admittedly, demand is not yet as high as some stakeholders had feared (or hoped),” said CLIVE’s Managing Director Niall van de Wouw.
“Capacity on a like-for-like basis (compared to September 2021) was more or less flat (+1 per cent) and, combined with a load factor of 68 per cent, this does not seem to indicate the final sprint to the end of the year has started.
“October was a steady month in the market overall with some strong seasonality factors, but the dynamic load factor was lower than anticipated given the strong week-over-week increases we reported in September. A global dynamic load factor of 68 per cent does show how efficiently the market is currently operating in terms of matching supply and demand.”
The “big shift”, the analyst said, was in overall cargo rates, which were up 155 per cent and 37 per cent in October 2021 compared to October 2019 and October 2020 respectively.