Bain & Company has released an updated version of its long-term air traffic forecast, extending its outlook through to 2040.

Initially launched in May 2020 as a tool to navigate the uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic, the forecast has since evolved into a detailed, forward-looking model. It now incorporates macroeconomic indicators, disposable income trends, and environmental cost assumptions to offer a clearer view of aviation’s future.

According to the latest analysis, global air travel demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. By the end of last year, RPK reached nearly 103% of 2019 volumes. Bain anticipates that demand will continue to rise, with 2025 projected to reach almost 108% of 2019 levels.

However, the firm notes that the impact of the pandemic has left a lasting mark on aviation’s growth trajectory. The 2020s are now expected to be the slowest-growing decade for the industry on record. While the 2030s may not replicate the rapid expansion seen before 2020, Bain forecasts that the long-term outlook remains solid. In its baseline scenario, global RPK is set to hit 14.8 trillion by 2040, equivalent to 178% of 2019 levels. This projection is underpinned by robust fundamentals in both emerging and mature markets.

Although the global macroeconomic outlook has softened – driven by rising tariff pressures and uncertainty around global trade – these headwinds are being partially offset by revised expectations on environmental costs. Bain & Company’s analysts point to a reprieve in carbon pricing assumptions and delays in certain climate-related levies, which could ease pricing pressures and support demand growth, especially in more cost-sensitive market segments.

Regionally, the most striking growth is expected in Asia. Intra-Asian air traffic is forecast to grow by 131% between 2019 and 2040, with China remaining a major growth engine. Bain & Company’s model suggests that by 2040, China’s total air traffic volume will more than double compared to 2019.

North America is also expected to see steady increases in intraregional demand, with a projected rise of 54% over the same period. Transatlantic traffic between Europe and North America is set to grow by around 44%, maintaining stable upward momentum despite slower overall growth in mature markets.

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