The new 2020 commercial market outlook report by Embraer examines passenger demand for air travel and new aircraft deliveries over the next 10 years.
The report, which identifies emerging trends that will influence growth, factors shaping future airline fleets and regions in the world that will lead demand in the commercial sector, has a special emphasis on aircraft up to 150 seats.
The manufacturer, which recently announced it is installing HEPA filters on its ERJ-145 jets, says there are four main drivers in the current market due to the global pandemic causing fundamental changes that are reshaping air travel patterns and demand for new aircraft. These are:
- Fleet rightsizing – a shift to smaller-capacity, more versatile aircraft to match weaker demand
- Regionalisation – companies seeking to protect their supply chains from external shocks will bring businesses closer, generating new traffic flows
- Passenger behaviour – preference for shorter-haul flights and decentralisation of offices from large urban centres will require more diverse air networks
- Environment – renewed focus on more efficient, greener aircraft types
“The short-term impact of the global pandemic has long-term implications for new aircraft demand,” said Arjan Meijer, president and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation. “Our forecast reflects some of the trends we’re already seeing – the early retirement of older and less efficient aircraft, a preference for more profitable smaller airplanes to match weaker demand, and the growing importance of domestic and regional airline networks in the restoration of air service. Aircraft with up to 150 seats will be instrumental in how quickly our industry recovers.”
The report says global passenger traffic (measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres – RPKs) will return to 2019 levels by 2024, yet remain 19 per cent below Embraer’s previous forecast through the decade to 2029. RPKs in Asia Pacific will grow the fastest (3.4 per cent annually).
Regarding deliveries, 4,420 new jets up to 150 seats will be delivered through 2029 and 75 per cent of the deliveries will replace ageing aircraft, 25 per cent representing market growth. The majority will be to airlines in North America (1,520 units) and Asia Pacific (1,220).
According to the report, 1,080 new turboprops will be delivered through 2029 and the majority of these will be to airlines in China/Asia Pacific (490 units) and Europe (190).
More details, including regional synopses for North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, China and Asia/Pacific, and the CIS can be found at www.embraermarketoutlook2020.com