Cargo demand growth slows in July but remains strong, reports IATA

Willie Walsh

Global air cargo demand continued its strong growth trend in July, according to the latest International Air Transport Association (IATA) data.

Measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, global demand rose 8.6 per cent compared to July 2019 (comparisons to 2020 are distorted by the impact of Covid-19). Overall growth remains strong compared to the long-term average growth trend of around 4.7 per cent, IATA reported.

The pace of growth slowed slightly compared to June which saw demand increase 9.2 per cent compared to pre-Covid-19 levels.

Click to enlarge.
CTKs growth vs new export orders PMI. Click to enlarge.
CTKs growth vs supplier delivery times PMI. Click to enlarge.

Capacity continues to recover but is still 10.3 per cent down compared to July 2019, while IATA noted that economic conditions continue to support air cargo growth. The July export orders component of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) was 52.7 per cent, indicating a short-term boost to demand if those orders are shipped by air, IATA said. The inventory-to-sales ratio remains low ahead of the peak year-end retail season, the association added.

“July was another solid month for global air cargo demand,” said IATA’s director general Willie Walsh. “Economic conditions indicate that the strong growth trend will continue into the peak year-end demand period [but] if supply chains and production lines are disrupted, there is potential for a knock-on effect for air cargo shipments.”

ACTK levels, actual and seasonally adjusted. Click to enlarge.
Cargo load factors by region (Africa excluded). Click to enlarge.
International CTK growth versus the same month in 2019 (airline region of registration, Africa excluded)

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