Xeneta’s air freight market expectations for 2026 have shifted significantly following the disruption caused by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, with higher freight rates, stronger demand and tighter capacity now expected than was forecast at the start of the year.

According to Xeneta’s Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update, long-term shipper rates, which had previously been forecast to decline by 5% to 10% this year, are now expected to increase by between 5% and 15%, driven primarily by the supply chain shock following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East in February.

The report also expects full-year demand growth to finish toward the upper end of the previously forecast 2% to 3% range, while capacity growth is now projected toward the lower end of a revised 2% to 3% range, down from the 3% to 4% forecast issued in December 2025.

The escalation of conflict on February 28 removed an estimated 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight. As a result, global air cargo supply grew by just 1% during the first half of 2026, while demand increased by 4%, creating a supply-demand imbalance that pushed combined global spot and long-term rates 17% higher year-on-year.

Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, said: “On 27 February I would have bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before I put money on air rates jumping 40%. Yet that is what happened, with global spot rates up around 40% year-on-year in May. Spot rates are now plateauing, but they are not falling.

“Demand keeps defying gravity. Despite everything thrown at it, the market has still moved more volume than last year – the engine just keeps running and it is quite remarkable.

“Shippers should expect demand growth to ease through H2, while supply continues its recovery from the Middle East disruption. As the two converge, the market fundamentals look set to tilt back in the shipper’s favour – but we have been here before, so take nothing for granted.”

Van de Wouw believes the events of 2026 have once again demonstrated air freight’s role in maintaining resilient global supply chains during periods of disruption.

He said: “Missile attacks closed major air hubs across the Middle East overnight in what is the most significant, sudden shock to air freight capacity in living memory. The COVID-19 pandemic may have been a bigger shock, but unlike this crisis, it built up over time.

“While ocean services are only just starting to trickle through Strait of Hormuz, air freight charters were back operational within days. Air freight cannot control its own destiny, but it responds fast and can achieve the speed and resilience in a way other modes simply cannot.”

AI demand replaces e-commerce as key growth driver

Xeneta’s report also highlights two contrasting trends shaping air cargo demand.

AI-related demand is accelerating, driven by shipments of semiconductors and computing hardware. Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year-on-year in April 2026, increasing 106% to record the strongest growth since records began in 1986. Although AI-related goods still account for less than 10% of total air cargo volumes, they are heavily concentrated on the Transpacific trade lane, now the strongest-performing corridor this year.

By contrast, e-commerce demand continues to weaken. China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May 2026, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline. The European Union (EU) also removed its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports on July 01, replacing it with a flat €3 duty per item, with an additional €2 handling fee expected in November.

“While e-commerce demand is cooling, AI-driven freight is booming, particularly on the Transpacific, “ van de Wouw said.

“I cannot see the e-commerce growth engine being revived. There will always be a consumer demand for cheap goods manufactured in Asia, but the extraordinary demand growth of recent years will not be sustained. E-commerce was air freight’s single biggest growth pillar, but that is no longer the case.”

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, van de Wouw warned that geopolitical uncertainty remains the biggest risk to the market.

“On February 27 nobody would have envisioned what came the next day. Dubai Airport under missile attack was unimaginable, but it happened. If Dubai can be closed by rockets, what else is possible? There will be another wildcard and, just like the Middle East conflict, it will come at a cost for shippers.”

The full Xeneta Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update is available at xeneta.com.