Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel us set to triple in volume in 2024, aviation trade body IATA has projected.

The increase, which IATA says is “on track” would see production rise to 1.9 billion litres, equating to 0.53% of the total aviation fuel required in 2024.

IATA, which is hosting its 80th AGM in Dubai this week, has set out its vision of the steps required to increase the production of SAF to support the sector to meet its net zero targets.

A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF with 86% of travellers agreeing that governments should provide incentives for airlines to use SAF.

The vast majority of air passengers agree (86%) also agreed that leading oil corporations should prioritise the production of SAF.

Willie Walsh, IATA director general, said: “SAF will provide about 65% of the mitigation needed for airlines to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

“So the expected tripling of SAF production in 2024 from 2023 is encouraging. We still have a long way to go, but the direction of exponential increases is starting to come into focus.”

Walsh has been critical of government mandates on airlines for the use of SAF when there is limited access to the alternative fuels.

IATA says increasing the production of renewable fuel is key to increasing the potential of SAF and around 140 renewable fuel projects have been announced to be in production by 2030.

This could take the total global renewable fuel production capacity 51 million tonnes by 2030, but IATA believes this could be exceeded as investor interest in SAF increases.

With a typical three-to-five-year time lag from planning to production, investment announcements as late as 2027 could be in production by 2030.

Through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), governments have set an ambition to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction for international aviation from SAF by 2030.

To achieve that, around 27% of all expected renewable fuel production capacity available in 2030 would need to be SAF. Currently, SAF accounts for just 3% of all renewable fuel production.

Walsh said: “The interest in SAF is growing and there is plenty of potential. But the concrete plans that we have seen so far are far from sufficient.

“Governments have set clear expectations for aviation to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction through SAF by 2030 and to be net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

“They now need to implement policies to ensure that airlines can actually purchase SAF in the required quantities.”

IATA has released a list of policy measures to boost SAF production

•    Diversify feedstocks: About 80% of SAF expected to be produced over the next five years is likely to come from hydrogenated fatty acids (HEFA): used cooking oils, animal fats, etc. Accelerating the use of other certified pathways and feedstocks (including agricultural and forestry residues and municipal waste) will greatly expand the potential for SAF production.

•    Co-processing: Existing refineries can be used to co-process up to 5% of approved renewable feedstocks alongside the crude oil streams. This solution can be implemented quickly and materially expand SAF production. However, policies must be put in place urgently to facilitate consistent life-cycle assessments.

•    Incentives to improve the output mix at renewable fuel facilities: The current renewable fuel facilities are designed to maximize diesel production and often benefit from incentives in addition to the long-standing demand from road transportation. As road transport transitions to electrification, policies should be established to shift production toward the long-term need of air transport for SAF. Incentives aimed at SAF can help facilitate the renewable diesel-SAF switch, which requires minimal modifications at existing stand-alone renewable fuel facilities.

•    Incentives to boost investments in renewable fuel production: The production of all renewable fuels will need to scale up rapidly, and among them, the need for a growing share of SAF production will necessitate strong policy support. One such clearly articulated policy is the US Grand Challenge and the $3 billion of investments it supports. Stable, long-term tax credits would further maximize SAF production capability in both existing and new facilities.

Walsh added: “Incentives to build more renewable energy facilities, strengthen the feedstock supply chain, and to allocate a greater portion of renewable fuel output to aviation would help decarbonizing aviation.

“Governments can also facilitate technical solutions with accelerated approvals for diverse feedstocks and production methodologies as well as co-processing renewable feedstocks in crude oil plants. No one policy or strategy will get us to the needed levels.

“But by using a combination of all potential policy measures, producing sufficient quantities of SAF is absolutely possible.”