Aviation intelligence platform IBA Insight has issued an optimistic assessment of aircraft orders likely to be revealed at next week’s Paris Air Show, despite ongoing concerns about US tariffs.

In a preview of the biennial show, IBA chief economist Stuart Hatcher, said it “would be good to see a positive” air show amid otherwise “gloomy speculation” about the sector.

Although aircraft orders are not linked due near-term demand and market dynamics, Hatcher says they are an indication of confidence in the market.

He said “near-term uncertainty, rising costs and slipping yields may well underscore a greater desire to place non-firm commitments instead”.

Hatcher described as “speculation” forecasts of aircraft order cancellations claiming this has been “sensationalised” in some assessments.

“Due to the time between orders and delivery, any cancellations that do occur in the near-term would have occurred anyway,” he said.

A market update from IBA in January painted a bullish long-term picture for aviation due to the enduring strength of US consumption and air travel demand meaning new trade deals were likely despite threats of protectionism by the US government.

“Assuming that agreements are not reached, then, of course it becomes a different story. Inflation will stifle growth, compounded by fiscal tightening, but we don’t want to go there as its second-guessing which barrel the bullet is in,” said Hatcher.

Overall, IBA predicts orders for around 700 to 800 commercial aircraft including firm, MoU, LOI and options, but excluding model conversions and announcements not relating to a fresh order.

It forecast widebody aircraft to feature prominently, although the bulk will remain with the narrowbody sector, and for Airbus to once again benefit from home soil by gaining most orders.

The Paris Air Show preview looked at the anticipated aircraft order activity in the following major regions of the world.

Middle East

The Middle East saw most of its order activity in May (for Boeing), and IBA expects the second act to appear during Paris week for Airbus.

The region currently supports around 1,569 active and short-term parked passenger and freight aircraft, with another 1,732 aircraft on firm order, plus around 335 commitments to buy (depending on how Boeing account for some of the recent additions).

That equates to around 375,000 seats in the current system, with a further 425,000 seats on firm backlog. With an average age of 13 years (active and parked), the backlog would allow for replacement and marginal growth, but not to the level envisaged by the key players from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Orders are likely from Riyadh Air (A350s), Qatar (A320 family and possibly some more A350s) and Etihad (A350s to match the 787s they ordered in May). Emirates is expected to decide this year on its next widebody order and wait for the Dubai Air Show in November.

India

The backlog for Indian airlines is currently at 1,757 firm and 150 options with 82% of that relating to IndiGo and Air India. IBA says there may be orders for narrowbodies but that the battle for the long-range market still has legs in it. It expects to see orders for more A350s and 777s for both big carriers.

Asia Pacific

The rest of APAC is expected to provide a boost to the Paris order book, however, identifying from which carriers is more challenging. Mainland Chinese operators have fallen back on growth in recent years, albeit their orders are often cloaked behind the undisclosed banner.

IBA says “certain tensions” preclude any chance of them placing a central order for Boeing at short notice, but there’s an outside chance to upset the negotiations by going with the home team (COMAC) to “send a message”, although this is not thought likely.

Elsewhere, Philippine Airlines, PIA (Pakistan), JAL (Japan), Cathay Pacific, and many others may look to Paris to announce orders across narrow, wide, regional and turboprop sectors. Possibly something from COMAC as a statement of solidarity.

Americas

IBA says the bulk of uncertainty centres on the Americas, but that may catalyse a near-term decision on long-term fleet plans, especially as that region shifts between the low-cost and premium offerings.

There is a lot to replace in this space, and outside of some sizeable backlogs, much of the backlog is insufficient to cover replacement, let alone growth.

American Airlines may have a steady backlog of narrowbodies and 787s, but it’s still short of what’s required. Delta is in a similar position. Neither operator tends to use an air show to announce fleet decisions except for a sizeable number of E-Jets and 737 MAX-9/10s.

Europe

IBA sees lots of opportunity for additional orders to be placed but it is challenging to pick out any clear targets.

IAG already placed a sizeable order in May to cover some replacement and growth for long-haul operations for BA, Iberia, Aer Lingus and Level, but still have gaps for further narrowbody replacements.

Air France needs to consider narrowbody replacements to join the A220s. Their A320 ceos’ average age is now 18 years old, with the oldest close to 31. Over 50% their 777s and A330s are 20 years old. KLM is only marginally better. Ryanair has intimated it could firm up its MAX 10 order.

Africa

Whilst not significant in relative demand terms against other regions, IBA says opportunities remain for replacement and growth orders, especially across North Africa.

EgyptAir has encountered significant issues with GTF-powered A220s, but the airline continues to look to expand beyond 2030, as has Royal Air Maroc and Tunisair.

Royal Air Maroc is expected to be planning big returns from the 2030 World Cup in Morocco, Spain and Portugal. The planned Hassan II Stadium in Casablanca will become the largest football stadium in the world, so worthy of their aim to grow to 200 aircraft from the current 59.

Lessors

lessors are considered more challenging to predict as the final operator is largely unknown until close to the time of delivery.

IBA does not expect the top five to place any speculative orders above the 1,500 they already have, the recent Avilease/Boeing order (20 firm and 10 options) may signal a similar, forthcoming Airbus one.

IBA does not rule out announcements by any of the top 10 lessors to sale-leaseback orders that accompany orders already mentioned.

Historically, it has been rare for ALC to not place some form of order. Looking back through IBA Insight, since 2010, only the last two Farnborough Air Shows (2022 and 2024) failed to yield any orders from them.

Regional Aircraft

In addition to the main Airbus/Boeing draw, IBA expects there to be some activity to come from Embraer and ATR.

The forecast is for less than 20 orders for each OEM. Aside from the two main regional aircraft OEMs, IBA expects Deutsche Aircraft to showcase the D328eco at the show this year.