Aircraft delivery delays across the commercial aerospace and defence sector are worsening as supply chain constraints outpace labour, capital and engineering shortfalls, according to new analysis from Bain & Company, with 87% of programmes studied citing supplier bottlenecks as a core obstacle to meeting order backlogs.

Bain’s review of 15 aerospace programmes in the US and Europe found that production growth targets are running 20% to 500% higher than levels set between 2024 and early 2026, a gap the consultancy describes as structural rather than temporary.

Boeing‘s order backlog has reached $695 billion, while Airbus continues to target higher monthly A320 family output despite ongoing engine supply constraints, a factor with direct relevance for low-cost and regional operators reliant on the type for fleet renewal.

CFM International‘s LEAP engine programme, which powers a significant share of the narrowbody fleet used by low-cost carriers, is running at a production ratio of 1.4 times its most recent disclosed output against target rate, the report found.

The Airbus A320 programme itself sits at 1.5 times, and the Boeing 737 MAX at 1.2 times, figures that point to continued pressure on delivery slots for airlines expecting new aircraft.

The report identifies the core constraint as demand concentration among sub-tier suppliers, who must often scale faster than any single customer requires because multiple manufacturers draw on the same supplier base simultaneously. Bain states that no individual customer’s forecast reveals the combined surge in demand facing these suppliers, which include specialist manufacturers of engines, castings, forgings and composite structures.

Bain also found that scaling production frequently damages unit economics in the short term, as capital costs reset and working capital requirements spike precisely when suppliers are under the most cash pressure. This has knock-on implications for component pricing and, potentially, for aftermarket and MRO costs faced by operators as parts availability tightens.

Among mitigation measures cited, GE Aerospace has committed more than $100 million to supplier investment in 2026, while Airbus’s Skywise data platform is credited with cutting A350 delivery lead times by 33% through faster resolution of quality issues across its supply chain. 

Bain concludes that digital forecasting and predictive supplier analytics offer the largest source of competitive advantage available to manufacturers over the next five years, as the industry works to close the gap between order books and actual output.