When and how will the pilot shortage end? Michael Dorran went to the AAPA Assembly of Presidents meeting in Australia to get some answers 

In its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook Boeing forecasts a need for 43,975 new airplanes in the next 20 years, with 1,525 of those being regional jets. In the same period regional specialist ATR predicts 2,450 new turboprops will be needed, so the regional sector will be adding nearly 4,000 new aircraft in the next two decades.

Boeing forecasts that between 2022-2041 the commercial aviation sector will need 602,000 new pilots to be recruited and trained. Pre-pandemic the industry was already heading toward a global pilot shortage which was exacerbated by early retirements and cutting airline cadet pilot programmes.

Market picture

Qualified pilots are in short supply and it will take years to refill the pipeline decimated by the pandemic, particularly in the regional sector. What is not as well-known is the global shortage of qualified flight instructors, with many instructors transitioning into flying with airlines.

Regional aviation is a starting point for commercial pilots as they log the minimum flying hours needed to be considered by larger airlines. When pilot demand surged post-COVID that changed as mainline airlines raided their smaller cousins for pilots to take the place of retired and retrenched pilots.

The lure of flying big jets for larger salaries was enough to encourage that shift and was certainly the case in North America and Australia, where regional services were reduced or suspended due to crew shortages.

When Australia’s largest regional carrier, Rex, decided to enter the domestic jet market in 2021 it had a large pool of ex-Qantas and Virgin Australia 737 pilots to choose from. However when domestic flying restarted its stocks of Saab 340 pilots were decimated by the major airlines hiring to replace those lost.

Being a commercial pilot in Australia has long been a roller coaster ride of shortages followed by a glut, often sending local pilots offshore. That is not the case today as all four of the major airlines, including Qantas, Virgin Australia, Jetstar and Rex, are actively hiring pilots to operate jets and turboprops on regional and mainline routes.

Pilot Pathway

The pathway to an airline cockpit has changed and in Australia it is now usually via a full-time training campus and flight school, rather than the weekend lessons and flight instructing roles of yesteryear. Tertiary institutions have teamed up with flight schools to offer aviation degrees and a commercial pilot licence as a package, although that route comes with quite a hefty price tag.

The Qantas Group, which includes Jetstar, and Rex both offer cadet pilot programs from ab initio to a commercial pilot licence (CPL) with an Instrument Rating, Multi-Engine Class Rating, Multi-Crew Cooperation and ATPL Theory subjects depending on the syllabus.

To gain those qualifications in Australia will cost a pilot around £75,000, plus another £15,000 for accommodation costs. There are government programs that fund a significant part of the cost where the pilot repays the money over time, just as any other tertiary student in Australia, but the high cost is a deterrent to many.

Qantas Group Pilot Academy

In 2020 the Qantas Group Pilot Academy, a partnership with Flight Training Adelaide (FTA), opened to build a long-term pipeline of pilots for Qantas, Jetstar and QantasLink, the Group’s regional airline.

The Queensland based academy will train up to 250 pilots each year using Diamond DA40 single engine and DA42 multi-engine aircraft and flight training devices. Cadets will graduate with a Commercial Pilots Licence, Airline Transport Pilots Licence (theory), Multi-Engine Command Instrument Rating and Multi-Crew Cooperation ratings.

The course runs for 55 weeks and graduating students who complete all requirements by their graduation date will be invited to attend a Qantas Group Accelerate Assessment Centre. There are no employment guarantees but successful graduates may be eligible for employment as a pilot with QantasLink, Jetstar or Network Aviation Australia.

Qantas has developed a scholarship programme that aims to remove barriers to entry and enhance diversity in the pilot population. These are open to First Nations Peoples and female applicants to cover on-site accommodation and meals while at the Academy, with course fees paid by the cadet.

In November last year Qantas and global training provider CAE opened a new purpose-built flight training centre near Sydney airport. The Sydney Flight Training Centre houses five full-flight simulators, three fixed training devices and ten classrooms that will be used to train thousands of new and existing Qantas and Jetstar pilots annually.

Low Cost and Regional Airline Business attended the opening and tested out the new Airbus A320 simulator being used to train Qantas pilots for the Airbus A321XLRs due to arrive this year. Qantas International CEO Cam Wallace was also there and he said the new facility is key to the Qantas Group’s long history of training pilots in Sydney.

“Qantas is proud of its strong safety culture and the skill and expertise of our pilots has long been recognised globally,” he said. “This new facility is a key part of ensuring these high standards continue across our next generation of aircraft and aviators.”

Sydney is the anchor city for the Project Sunrise nonstop flights to London and New York and pilots will commence training for their ultra-long haul flights once the A350 simulator arrives. The existing full-flight simulators are for A380, A330, A320, 737 and 787 aircraft.

Rex AAPA

The Rex Group financially imploded in 2024 when its domestic Boeing 737 services were grounded and the airline placed into administration. With support from the Australian Government the Saab 340 turboprop services continued operating to ensure regional connectivity.

Within the group is the Australian Airline Pilot Academy (AAPA) which has flight training campuses in New South Wales and Victoria. The Academy trains pilots to commercial airline standards and has been approved by regulators in Australia, China, Singapore, Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates.

Rex operates an intensive cadet programme that qualifies successful graduates with an Australian Commercial Pilot Licence (CPL), Instrument Rating (IR) and Multi Engine Class Rating (MECR). Rex has devised a unique financing package for cadets with a minimal upfront payment and a provided loan to cover course fees, although that may have changed since Rex entered administration.

While nothing is guaranteed Rex generally offers employment to all successful graduates, with training provided for them to acquire a type rating on the Saab 340 used on regional routes. Once the type rating has been secured the cadet will complete the necessary line training in order to be checked to line as a First Officer.

AAPA has trained pilots for Rex, Air China, Hainan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Okay Airlines, Scoot, Qatar Airways, China Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Shenzhen Airlines, Tigerair, Vietnam Airlines and Air Arabia.

What are the job prospects?

Given the current shortage of pilots the prospects of securing a pilot job in Australia are unusually high. A scan of airlines careers pages shows existing vacancies at seven airlines, including roles for both jet and turboprop aircraft.

While Qantas itself is not currently hiring its subsidiary airlines have opportunities across the country and in Asia and New Zealand. These include Jetstar (A320/321), QantasLink (DHC Dash 8), Qantas Freight (A321/A330), Jetconnect (737) and Network Aviation (A320/Fokker 100).

Rex has called for Expressions of Interest to join the airline for First Officer positions on Saab A340 regional turboprops, while Virgin Australia Regional Airlines is seeking First Officers for its fleet of new-generation Embraer E190-E2 regional jets.