Low-cost airlines and fintechs will lead the post-pandemic travel industry recovery, according to a report published by Bloomberg Intelligence (BI).

It also says that business and international travel may have to wait till early next year (2022).

Companies such as Ryanair, Southwest Airlines, and Visa are expected to see the first benefits of a travel industry recovery in the US with Europe lagging behind slightly, BI forecasts.

BI believes the post-pandemic travel industry recovery will happen but highlights a “critical distinction” between firms focused on domestic, personal and alternative travel versus those reliant on international trips and.

“Online alternative accommodations such as Airbnb and Bookings and the credit card providers they bill such as Mastercard, may be leading indicators of the revival as they’ll book trips ahead of a meaningful return to actual travel in 2022,” said BI senior industry analyst Julie Chariell

The BI report, North American Post-Pandemic Travel Recovery Report, says low-cost airlines could see the start of recovery in the summer as leisure flying returns helping airlines which don’t cross national borders first.

In the US, airlines which will benefit will include Southwest, Spirit, Frontier, JetBlue and Alaska while in Europe the winners will include Ryanair, Wizz Air, Easyjet and Norwegian Air, BI says.

Fintechs will be a key indicator, the report says, as customers will book through plastic making Visa, Mastercard and American Express early beneficiaries possibly as soon as Q2 if vaccinations mean trips can go ahead later in the year.