The Middle East aftermarket commercial services industry is forecast to be worth US$740 billion between 2021 and 2040, according to Boeing’s 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), with the region expected to capitalise on the recovery of international travel and cargo demand.

Boeing’s managing director of commercial marketing for the Middle East Randy Heisey said: “The Middle East region’s role as a global connecting hub continues to be important for developing markets to and from Southeast Asia, China and Africa.

“The region has been a leader in restoring confident passenger travel through multi-faceted initiatives that aid international travel recovery.”

The Middle East region’s freighter fleet is projected to nearly double from 80 aircraft in 2019 to 150 by 2040, with two of the world’s top-five cargo carriers based in the region.

The 2021 CMO freighter fleet forecast, which incorporates near-term cyclical disruptions and long-term structural impacts it anticipates will impact air cargo markets, valued the 2021-2040 global aftermarket commercial services market at US$9.5 trillion.

Assuming the air cargo industry returns to pre-pandemic market dynamics, the forecast predicts the world’s freighter fleet will grow by more than 1,300 units by 2040 – powered by GDP growth, industrial production and replacement demand.

The CMO also assumes the current dynamics of constrained widebody capacity will dissipate into the long-term, and air cargo will reflect market dynamics closer to those seen in the years prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, nearly 50 per cent of worldwide air cargo was transported via widebody passenger lower cargo holds.

The CMO outlines the growth of e-commerce as a key future trend, with the growth of existing and new entities in e-commerce transport segments, and their strategies around air and shipping transport, being key drivers in the trajectory of air cargo demand supporting future growth.