The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that skilled labour shortages, fragile supply chains and limited access to engines and parts will continue to restrict airline growth into the early 2030s, despite a modest recovery in aircraft deliveries from late 2025.

In its latest global outlook, IATA said demand will continue to outstrip aircraft and engine availability, with delivery shortfalls now exceeding 5,300 aircraft and the global order backlog surpassing 17,000 units – equivalent to almost 60% of the active fleet.

Production ramp-ups are being directly constrained by shortages of skilled workers, particularly in engine and component manufacturing, while newly built airframes are increasingly being parked due to engine availability issues.

IATA said ageing fleets are driving higher fuel burn and maintenance demand, with average aircraft age now at 15.1 years.

A joint study with Oliver Wyman estimates that supply chain disruption will cost airlines more than USD 11 billion in 2025 alone.

To accelerate recovery, IATA called for greater use of data in maintenance activity, improved supply-chain visibility and expanded access to alternative parts and used serviceable material (USM), alongside reforms to reduce dependence on OEM-driven aftermarket models.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “Airlines are feeling the impact of the aerospace supply chain challenges across their business. Higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability gains, and increased reliance on suboptimal aircraft types are the most obvious challenges.

“Airlines are missing opportunities to strengthen their top-line, improve their environmental performance, and serve customers.

“Meanwhile, travellers are seeing higher costs from the resulting tighter demand/supply conditions. No effort should be spared to accelerate solutions before the impact becomes even more acute.”

READ MORE NEWS: Airlines picking up the bill for ATC strikes is ‘disgraceful’, says IATA’s Willie Walsh