The MRO sector is being ‘redefined’ as airlines begin to take delivery of new, highly fuel efficient narrowbody aircraft, according to Oliver Whyman’s Global Fleet & MRO Forecast 2022-2032.
The latest report into commercial aircraft deliveries and inventories predicts MRO demand to reach $118 billion by 2030 – 13 per cent below the pre-Covid forecast of $135 billion.
MRO demand should recover to pre-COVID levels by 2024, but annual growth in the second half of the report’s 10-year forecast period will be 2.8%.
“There is optimism that the industry has turned the corner and is now on an upward trajectory – but the next 10 years will be filled with a multitude of challenges that will test the industry’s resilience unlike ever before,” said Brian Prentice, a partner with Oliver Wyman.
“As unimaginably bad as COVID-19 has been for aviation, the challenge of the next decade [carbon dioxide emissions] may be almost as disruptive. The industry needs smart strategies to get itself in a better position by the 2030s.”
Other key findings from the report include:
- The global fleet is set to grow to 38,100 aircraft by 2032 — a compound growth rate of 4.1% over the decade.
- Narrowbody aircraft will make up a larger share of the fleet — 64% in January 2032 versus 58% in January 2020 — as the slow recovery of international traffic after COVID-19 is depressing the number of widebodies in service.
- The fleet won’t reach its pre-pandemic peak of almost 28,000 until the first half of 2023
- The dedicated global cargo fleet grew 3% and conversions of passenger aircraft to freight carriers broke records, thanks to a double-digit expansion in demand with the COVID-related explosion in online shopping and the loss of cargo belly capacity.
