Regional airlines are increasingly extending leases, overhauling engines and retaining older aircraft as persistent supply-chain constraints continue to delay fleet renewal plans, delegates at the European Regions Airline Association General Assembly heard this week.
Industry leaders speaking on a panel examining the future of regional aviation said shortages of aircraft, engines and maintenance capacity are forcing operators to rethink replacement strategies, with many now planning years further ahead than before the pandemic.
Opening the discussion, Daniel Riefer, partner at McKinsey, noted that while demand for air travel continues to rise, connectivity on regional routes under 1,000km has declined in recent years, creating opportunities for operators able to secure capacity.
However, obtaining that capacity remains a challenge.
"There is no availability," said Saskia Reijnen, SVP Marketing at Abelo, referring to the market for young regional aircraft. "Airlines are forced to plan further ahead to make sure that there is availability of assets."
According to Reijnen, supply-chain disruption continues to affect both aircraft availability and maintenance activity, making fleet planning significantly more complex than it was before COVID-19.
The result is a market where operators are increasingly choosing certainty over renewal.
"Airlines are being careful," she said. "They rather extend the lease knowing that there is certainty around the asset and also to make sure that you have no issues around the maintenance than to replace."
For lessors, the trend towards lease extensions has become one of the defining characteristics of the current market.
Anne-Bart Tielman, CEO of TrueNoord, said delivery delays and economic uncertainty are encouraging airlines to keep proven aircraft in service rather than commit to major fleet investments.
"What we do see is that people stay with what they have," he said. "It works. You know what it costs. You have people that can operate it."
While aircraft manufacturers continue to build substantial order backlogs, panellists suggested that many operators remain unconvinced that replacement aircraft will arrive when promised.
"I think every manufacturer is struggling to meet those requirements," said Tielman. "You shouldn't be surprised if that all moves a little bit more to the right."
As a result, some lessors are actively investing in the life extension of existing fleets.
Tielman revealed that TrueNoord is committing capital to major overhauls of CF34 engines widely used on regional jets, reflecting expectations that these aircraft will remain in commercial service for far longer than previously anticipated.
"We decided to invest specifically in CF34 engines," he said. "We do invest in existing assets because we see that those aircraft will stay longer in operation than people maybe originally had expected."
While aircraft availability remains constrained, operators warned that engines have become an equally significant bottleneck.
Andeers Fred, CEO of Jetime A/S, described engine availability and maintenance capacity as the weakest points in today's aviation supply chain.
"If I put my money on one thing, it's the engine spares," he said, pointing to shortages of spare engines, limited MRO capacity and lengthy turnaround times for shop visits.
Although labour shortages continue to affect parts of the industry, Fred suggested engine-related constraints now present the most immediate risk to fleet availability.
For regional airlines, the picture emerging is one of prolonged scarcity rather than imminent relief.
Panellists agreed that supply and demand remain fundamentally out of balance and that lease rates are likely to remain under upward pressure until manufacturers, engine suppliers and maintenance providers are able to restore capacity.
That means older aircraft, once expected to be replaced this decade, could remain central to regional fleets well into the 2030s.
