Ryan Kirby, partner at Alderman & Company, gives his assessment of a Farnborough International Airshow that saw defence come to the fore and the focus placed on supply chain, technology and resilience
The 2026 Farnborough International Airshow ran July 20 to 24, and by most measures of activity it was a successful show.
Some 1,600+ exhibitors, over 100,000 visitors, an additional hall added to accommodate demand, and the full range of aerospace and defence companies from around the world.
Ahead of the show, we wrote about the three pillars FIA had set for itself, "Advancing Aerospace, Propelling Defence, and Pioneering Space," and stated it was an excellent time to be in all three.
That held up. But for those of us who have been walking these halls for years, this Air Show felt different, and the difference is worth middle-market A&D owners noting.
On the trade show floor
The final exhibitor count came in at a record 1,636 companies, well above the roughly 1,270 exhibitors listed when we previewed the show three weeks prior.
Exhibition space sold out twice over, and organizers added a sixth hall to absorb the demand. Roughly two-thirds of exhibitors came from overseas, across 28 national pavilions, up from 21 pavilions in 2024.
US companies alone occupied 20,537 square meters, some 35% of the total exhibition space. More than 600 investors registered to attend.
Two things from our pre-show analysis were confirmed on the floor.
First: the strong defence presence was real. We flagged FIA chief executive Gareth Rogers' comment that defense floor space had grown from roughly 40% to 50% this year. It showed. While walking the halls, that 50% defense presence felt conservative.
Second: the composition of innovation on display changed. Organisers reported that 22% of exhibitors were first-timers, and that many came from artificial intelligence, emerging technology, aviation finance, and supply chain logistics rather than traditional aerospace manufacturing.
Our sample analysis before the show found 84% of exhibitors sitting in Tier 2/3 services, MRO, or trade bodies (ADS), and 62% below $100 million of revenue. That profile has not changed.
What has changed is that a growing share of those small companies are selling software, autonomy, and data rather than hardware.
Aerospace and defence has always been based on two primary things (in addition to safety): people and innovation.
Innovation across all areas of A&D was impressive, particularly this year, as unmanned systems and autonomy stood out, as well as advances in hybrid-electric propulsion.
Specifically of note was that GE flew a megawatt-class hybrid-electric propulsion demonstrator, with Aurora Flight Sciences (a Boeing company) handling the aircraft modifications and system integration on a modified Saab 340B testbed.
The flight validated real-world, high-altitude performance of electrified propulsion at commercial scale, marking a meaningful step toward
potentially equipping the next-generation, blank-sheet single-aisle jet with hybrid-electric technology, which realistically looks like a next-decade program for Airbus and Boeing.
Defence took the show
Defence was the dominant feature of Farnborough 2026. The Global Combat Air Program was the anchor. The UK, Italy, and Japan trilateral sixth-generation fighter had recently secured a £4.6 billion long-term development contract, placing it on a path toward 2035 service entry.
Around it, sustained Russian military activity has simultaneously accelerated procurement decisions across European defence ministries, and companies from Russia and Iran remain barred from the show under UK government restrictions.
The UK spending question was live and unresolved. Britain has committed alongside NATO allies to reach 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035, and its Defence Investment Plan, delayed for months, has yet to be published.
From the stage, the UK leader of the opposition party, Kemi Badenoch, pressed for a far more aggressive rearmament program and for a firm commitment to 3% of GDP within this Parliament, a nearer-term floor well ahead of the 2035 target rather than a competing figure.
The new defence secretary, Wes Streeting, speaking the following day, declined to make that commitment.
For UK-based suppliers, the gap between stated ambition and a funded procurement line is the single largest variable in the next three years of capital planning.
One general note from the trade show floor: the UK is still feeling the impact of Brexit. Six years on, UK trade associations say the aviation sector is still absorbing added costs and operational disruption from the decision to leave.
Order book
Farnborough Year Boeing Airbus Total
2010 248 307 555
2012 396 115 511
2014 251 498 749
2016 162 288 470
2018 628 481 1,109
2020 Show Cancelled
2022 234 122 356
2024 118 173 291
2026 173 154 327
Source: Reuters
Announced order volume recovered from a subdued Paris 2025, where Boeing withheld new order announcements following the Air India accident.
Announced orders were down compared to the average of orders per show since 2010, 327 orders compared to the average of 546.
For middle-market suppliers, the practical implication is that airshow order tallies are no longer a useful demand signal. Production rates and delivery performance are more important to track closely.
Record aircraft backlog
Before the show, we noted that ADS put the combined global commercial aircraft backlog at 16,683 aircraft at the end of April 2026, up 5% year-on-year and the highest figure it had ever recorded, representing roughly 12 years of work at projected production rates.
The FIA confirmed that picture at all levels in A&D from OEMs to Tier 3 suppliers. The orders announced during the week added to the backlog further.
I believe the significant backlog before the show was a primary reason that a handful of attendees I spoke to felt a slightly ‘muted’ atmosphere in some areas of the show.
The subdued order tally during the show was a ‘nice addition’, but not the primary focus of many. Both airframers arrived with production effectively sold out well into the next decade.
This theme extended well beyond commercial aircraft. Aerospace's bottleneck isn't sales anymore - it's throughput.
Farnborough 2026 delivered plenty of order headlines (Boeing and Airbus each landed major commitments, and defence programs from missile defence to autonomous aircraft dominated the exhibit floor), but the more consequential conversations were about whether the supply base can actually keep pace.
Specialty component shortages, workforce constraints, and a new federal push to onshore critical materials sourcing all point to the same reality: building backlogs are not the industry's focus, execution is.
For owners of precision machining, complex assemblies, specialty processing, and aftermarket capability, the implication is favourable and specific.
When the industry's binding constraint is capacity rather than orders, capacity itself becomes the scarce asset.
That is showing up in how buyers are underwriting these businesses, and it is why we expect the transaction environment across the supply chain to remain competitive through the balance of the year.
The floor was busy, the backlog is full, and the winners in this cycle won't be the loudest - they'll be the ones who can execute and deliver.
I hope to see you at the next Air Show.
Source notes
1. Reuters Commercial Jet Order per FIA: https://www.reuters.com/business/ aerospace-defense/aircraft-orders-farnborough-airshow-boeing-airbus-race-deals-2026-07-20/
2. Royal Aeronautical Society: aerosociety.com/news/farnborough-international-airshow-2026-preview/
3. Business Matters: bmmagazine.co.uk/news/farnborough-airshow-2026-record-exhibitors/
4. Aerospace Global News: aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/farnborough-international-airshow-2026-preview/
5. CNR Services International: cnrdesign.co.uk/farnborough-airshow-2026/
FIA2026: Alderman and Company's Ryan Kirby speaks to ABNcast on day one of Farnborough
